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Decision Biases: Anchoring and Confirmation
Anchoring is letting the first number or idea pull your judgment. Confirmation bias is noticing evidence that supports what you already believe and missing what does not. Both close off information good decisions need.
A manager hears that a new hire 'struggled at her last job' and then notices every mistake she makes while overlooking her wins. That is confirmation bias at work.
What evidence would change my mind, and have I looked for it?
Believing that knowing about biases protects you from them. It does not; process does (checklists, devil's advocates, outside views).
Before your next decision, write down one fact that would prove you wrong. Then go look for it.
In a salary negotiation, the employer names a number first. Why does that matter?
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Anchoring. The first number pulls the final outcome toward it, so counter with a researched number rather than adjusting from theirs.
Problems where this shows up
- How do I give someone difficult feedback?
- How should I make this decision?
- Is this workplace practice ethical?